The Gag Reflex

2013 is just around the corner, and election fever is in the air (coupled with lots of swearing and gravel dust, if you’re from Lahore), and although it remains to be seen whether the polls will be held on time, that has not stopped the stakeholders from swinging into action.

It’s been an eventful 5 years. We’ve had the economic turmoil we’ve grown accustomed to, the usual commodity shortages, some landmark judicial precedents to spice things up and the odd hero moment or two thrown in for good measure. In any boring (read: normal) democracy, elections at this stage would herald a thorough retrospection into past mistakes and cries for change. The past year would certainly lead us to believe that we are headed into the right direction. The recent Supreme Court verdict implicating several bigwigs in a poll fixing scandal alone should be enough to send them and their parliamentary aspirations packing. Coupled with rampant corruption scandals, you’d think the People’s Party and the Muslim League – Nawaz would have their work cut out for themselves.

 Sadly that doesn’t seem to be the case. The masses are easily swayed by fiery speeches and circumstantial evidence (or lack of). Throw in a hundred thousand laptops a multi-million Rupee advertising campaign and all the skeletons in your closet shall be forgotten.

But even so the PPP and PML-N could not have foreseen the rise of the Tehreek-e-Insaf as viable competition a year ago. The contents of Khan’s manifesto is nothing radical, he talks of political and economic reform, a much less conservative foreign policy, greater accountability and an end to corruption. All of these things we have been promised before, but what makes the manifesto radical is how the TI has gone about peddling their brand of transparency. The party has done away with the family politics of yesteryears and held intra-party elections to select its leadership. Membership is conditional on submitting and publicly declaring tax returns and wealth statements. The party’s account of its expenditures and contributions from members are easily available. Most argue that these measures had to be taken as Khan has nothing to show off his political prowess otherwise, but having done so, there is no reason that the Tehreek-e-Insaaf shouldn’t sweep the upcoming general elections (or rational reason).

But that is where the electoral gag reflex sets in. That all familiar reluctance you feel before ordering an entree you haven’t tried before. In our case this reluctance is perhaps understandable, we have rarely seen things change for the better and there is no reason these elections could be different. This will not be the first time in our history that a voice of change has been slowly disregarded by the general public. The old guard is nothing if not resolute. Subtle hints of anarchy, foreign involvement and even more recently martial law is often enough to induce mass panic. 

A few years ago Imran Khan was accused of being nothing more than a bag of hot air and charisma, peddling his leftist agenda, and having nothing to show for a decade of campaigning. His party was a rag-tag band of idealists and political misfits who had slipped beneath the radar of Pakistan’s political scene.

Forward to 2012 and you’ll find that Khan has cultivated a loyal following including some prized electables. But now that he has dealt with the chink in his armour, he is paradoxically accused of collaborating with the old guard and doing away with the change he has promised. Or at least these are the lines along which most of the old guard have decided to frame their periodic bouts of khan-bashing  

So what is the Tehreek-e-Insaaf to do if it wishes to go into the elections without this baggage?

The answer is a simple “nothing”. The fact is that if the performance of the government over the past 5 years is not enough to sway the opinion of the masses in favour of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf, chances are nothing that Khan can say and do will.

It seems peculiar that after 5 years of criticizing the government, a remarkably large number of the population seems reluctant to see it go. Perhaps they have shouted themselves hoarse, or are simply afraid of what comes next. After all we have grown so accustomed to the PPP PML-N power wrangling that anything else could unravel the delicately woven fabric of our society.

It is hardly surprising that Imran Khan does not have the approval of most of the bureaucracy, army or the country’s wealthiest, since most of the reforms he has promised will make it harder for them to hang on to their ill gotten power. What is surprising is that over the past few months the PPP government has seen its popularity rise in the media, accompanied by increasing bashing of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf. What this proves (among other things) is that the criticism levelled at khan isn’t because of his background, his manifesto or even his rigid stance on alliances with parties that are already in power. It is simply because like all sensible people, we here in Pakistan prefer to remain carefully optimistic. Rather than betting all our marbles on a wild card and having our hopes dashed (like we have so often) the majority prefers to continue on with the status quo, however flawed it may seem.

The harsh reality is that so many of us live with so little that a radical shift in leadership along with the uncertainty it entails, seems unnerving to say the least. One can only hope that come election day we don’t turn into the South African cricket team and get over our gag reflex so we can see through the change we have been promised.